AFL Finals Week 2

Results from Week 1

It was the week "the west was won", with both West Coast and Fremantle moving directly to the Preliminary finals to be played in Perth. West Coast have certainly firmed to now be the new Premiership favourites, and rightly so after defeating a very tired looking Hawthorn. Right from the opening siren the Eagles dominated. As discussed in my previous blog "Who should Hawthorn choose to play in Perth? Fremantle or West Coast?", I think Hawthorn made a strategically poor decision by not resting their players in the final week and finishing fourth, thereby playing Fremantle instead of West Coast. I think the Hawks would have had a much better chance against Fremantle whilst resting key players. I was also surprised by two other selection decisions. Why Jonathan Ceglar did not play and why they did not rest Isaac Smith. Not that either decision would have made a huge difference.

I believe. resting the Fremantle players made a difference to the win. Sydney competed admirably given the depleted side without Jack, Parker and of course Buddy. This game proved two things to me. That neither of these two teams will win and likely not even make the Grand Final. The forward line of each team did not look like they could kick a winning score. Sydney needed Buddy and Fremantle needed to rely on the likes of their small forwards - Ballantyne and Walters.

In the Elimination finals both Adedaide and North Melbourne were successful although not convincingly. The Bulldogs kept Adelaide in the game by their inaccuracy. In the end it was their leadership led by "Tex" (Taylor) Walker and Dangerfield's experience and composure that won the game. Not to mention the brilliance of man of the match, Eddy Betts who kept them in the game all day. It seemed that Eddy was given FAR too much room to move in the forward line.

Similarly in North Melbourne's win it was the more experience players like "Boomer", Waite and Swallow with assistance from Cunnington and Jacobs that got them over the line. Jacobs did a wonderful job curbing Trent Cotchin's influence throughout the game. I thought Richmond would get the job done but North Melbourne did their homework better and rested the players which i believe made a difference.

1st Semi Final

Hawthorn should go into the first Semi Final as favourites. The key to winning this match for Hawthorn is to curb Patrick Dangerfield and Eddy Betts.  Liam Shields or Will Langford will get the job of "Danger" and Taylor Duryea or Ben Stratton will get Eddy Betts. The question for Hawthorn is who will they bring in to replace Jack Gunston? James Scicily or they will go to swingmen, Ryan Shoenmakes or Matt Spangher. I think Hawthoun should win this match comfortably by 20 points given they rarely lose two games in a row and they are after all the most experienced finals team.

2nd Semi Final

After beating Richmond in the elimination final, the Kangaroos should win this games from a depleted  Swans outfit. This will be a very different result to last year's preliminary final where North Melbourne defeated Swans. After last years loss, North Melbourne should be hungry to win against the team that knocked them out in last year's preliminary final. North Melbourne by 25 points. The only way Sydney can defeat North Melbourne is with Buddy firing to go. If Buddy is back I think the Swans can get up in a thriller....by 1 point.

 

   

AFL Finals Week 1

Predictions

Four games to go to the first week of finals and my predictions for the Qualifying and Elimination finalists were almost spot on. My only blemish was I thought Geelong with seasoned players would get the eighth spot. However a draw to St Kilda and loss to Collingwood effectively killed Geelong's chances. Effectively they have only themselves to blame. 

Now the finals are as follows:

Since the final eight system has been in place, only teams in the top four have gone onto winning the Grand Final. However this year with the evenness of the top eight I believe any of the teams can win. The equation is very simple:

• For the elimination finalists - win four games in a row;
• For the Qualifying finalists - win two games in a row (if you win the QF) or three games in a row (if you lose the QF).

Qualifying final 2

This is the match that I am most excited about, not only because I am a Hawthorn supporter but because I believe it will be these two sides that will compete for the Grand Final. The only other team that I believe can threaten is Richmond. Being in Perth at Domain Stadium, gives West Coast the edge. The key to the game is the performance of Nic |Natanui and how well Hawthorn can dilute his influence. Hawthorn have struggled lately with leaping ruckman (e.g. Paddy Ryder) and you would think that Jonathan Ceglar with his 2.04m frame would be a key inclusion into the team. The question is who will be the second ruck - Hale or McEvoy? I would opt for "Big Boy" McEvoy as he will have the body strength to go with Natanui and Lycett. However Clarkson will likely opted for the more experienced Hale (who is likely in his final year at Hawthorn). Both teams have potent forward lines so this game will be won in the middle. Matt Priddis and Andrew Gaff are in terrific form and I believe one of these players (if not both) will need to be stopped. I would get Liam Shields or Will Langford to blanket Matt Priddis who is the contested ball king. Gaff is usually the recipient (via handball) of Priddis' hard ball gets. Hawthorn being the finals kings should win this match as they will have more composure on the big stage.

I think Hawthorn made a strategic mistake in the last round of the home and away season as they should have rested players and let Brisbane win the final round of the finals (therefore playing Fremantle instead of the in form West Coast). Now they face the likely contender for the Grand Final on their home ground. I think West Coast will win this match and confirm their favouritism for winning the Premiership. Hawthorn will need to regroup and to attempt a three-peat via the long road and the toughest road there. West Coast by 25 points.

Qualifying Final 1

With so many injuries to key players such as Buddy, Parker, Jack it is very difficult to see Sydney beat Fremantle at home. In addition the Fremantle players have been rested and should be fresh to win this match. To be honest I do not see either of these teams making the Grand Final, whether they win or lose this match. It is likely the Hawks will face Fremantle in the Preliminary final. It is difficult to see Sydney winning this or going further, I think they will be beaten by Richmond or North Melbourne in the Semi Finals after losing this one......unless of course Buddy comes back with a huge bang! Fremantle by 20 points

Elimination Final 1

Well done to the Bulldogs and the Crows to get to the finals in 2015. Given where the Western Bulldogs were at the end of last year to get to where they are now, is a huge turnaround for this team. For the Crows, after last year's disappointing season.  I expected them to get this far. That was though until the tragic passing of their coach Phil Walsh. The team could have gone two ways and I admire the Crows for coming together when everything seemed against them. I also think given the experience of the two teams (including finals) that Adelaide will win this game. You cannot beat experience against youth and enthusiasm when it comes to finals. Either way for these two teams in the eyes of their supporters this year has been a successful year. Adleaide by 18 points

Elimination Final 2

This is perhaps the most difficult game to predict of the four. Both Richmond and North Melbourne are form teams and I believe the winner of this game will play in the Preliminary final. They are both in better form than either Sydney or Fremantle. It will make the Preliminary Final a tough match when they face either team. They key to winning this game is holding down Cotchin and Deledio. If North Melbourne can do that they will win. If they cannot, then Richmond will fulfil their target of winning at least one final. I believe Richmond can do it, but this game can go either way and the result may well be less than one goal. Richmond by 3 points.