Hawks threepeat......now look to immortality

Threepeat Hawks

After winning the 2015 premiership, the Alistair Clarkson coached Hawthorn team are without question,  the greatest AFL team of the modern era. I believe they have surpassed the Brisbane Lions (2001-04) and the Geelong Cats (2007-11). Both Brisbane and Geelong played in 4 out of 5 grand finals with each winning three premierships. The difference with Brisbane is they were able to achieve a threepeat (three in a row) however Geelong did not win any in succession. Wining three premierships in a row is no easy feat with only six teams in history to achieve it:

• Hawthorn (2013-15)
• Brisbane (2001-3)
• Melbourne (1953-7)
• Melbourne (1939-41)
• Collingwood (1927-30)
• Carlton (1906 - 08)

Collingwood is the only team (above) to win four in a row. The next phase for this Hawthorn team is now AFL immortality, that is if they have not achieved it already. Success of a football team can be defined by a number of factors including (also from a supporter perspective):

• Winning games (preferably much more than you lose)
• Beating teams "you love to hate"
• Finishing at the top of the ladder (if not, top 4, and at minimum top 8)
• Your teams's players winning awards (Brownlow, Coleman, Norm Smith) and making the All Australian team
• Your team is stable, profitable and has large number of supporters being members 
• Team is the "team of choice" for employees, players and members
• Playing finals football
• Playing in a grand final

Ultimately though it is ONLY one thing that defines the success of any sports team and that is winning premierships (or the equivalent for your sport). If you are winning premierships nothing else really matters and all the success factors (above) will typically follow. Perhaps not the individual awards, but everything else will.

Hawthorn currently are a champion team that epitomises exactly that. Even their motto, "Play your role" shows they are focused on team success as opposed to individual brilliance. It also shows that a champion team will always beat a team of champions (as long as a salary cap is in place). If you look at player ratings the highest Hawthorn member is Jarryd Roughead at number 16.

So how does Hawthorn become the greatest team of all time?

Greatest teams of all time

The three teams that have a claim to immortality as "the greatest team of all time" would include:

• Hawthorn (2008-2015) - current team
• Hawthorn (1983-91)
• Collingwood (1927-30)

Peter Knights and Leigh Matthews would argue that the Hawthorn team of the 80's are the greatest Hawthorn team because:

• 5 premierships (83, 86, 88. 89, 91)
• 7 consecutive grand finals (1983-89)
• 2 Brownlow medals (Dipierdominico, Platten)
• 2 Coleman medals (Jason Dunstall) 

Given we are talking about teams and not individual performance. Brownlow and Colemen medals do not count (in my opinion). Sure there were many champions as part of this era including, Matthews, Knights, Dipierdominico, Plattern, Tuck, Brereton, Dunstall, Buckenara, Jarman, Ayres, Eade, Wallace, Judge, and many more. As I mentioned before, success for a team is all about ONE thing and that is winning a premiership .......everything else is secondary. Sure reaching a grand final is great but if you do not take the silver (cup) home, it is an unsuccesful year. The Hawthorn team of the 80's never achieved a threepeat (three in a row), so you can argue which team is better. I have Alistair Clarkson's team head to head with this team purely on premierships, given the system is designed now to disadvantage successful teams -  the expanded national competition(more teams), the draft and the salary cap. If this Hawthorn team wins next year then I think it is unquestionable as the greatest Hawthorn team ever and the greatest team ever, including the Collingwood team of 1925 - 30 whose merits include:

• 6 consecutive grand finals (1925-30)
• 4 premierships in a row (1927 - 30)
• 5 consecutive minor premierships ((1926 - 30)
• 3 Brownlow medalist
• 5 consecutive years of leading goalkicker (Gordon Coventry)
• 1 undefeated home and away season in 1929

If Hawthorn win one more premiership it would be hard to argue that they are the greatest team ever as they would have equalled the Collingwood feat of 4 in a row in a competition that makes it even more difficult today for teams to dominate (as previously discussed). The system is designed so if you have success in one year you are disadvantaged in the next year. Which goes a long way to showing how great this Hawthorn team is. Two more premierships for 2016 and 2017, they would reach a state of immortality all on their own! No one could challenge this team to be the greatest of all time.

What made this team so great?

It is ALL about Culture and Leadership. Hawthorn had great leadership which created this juggernaut of a team. As much as you can dislike Jeff Kennett you have to admire his leadership capability. The year 2005 saw the appointment of Alistair Clarkson, who also has become a great leader and coach in his own right. Where Alistair Clarkson excelled was his football smarts and strategies. Very much like a "playbook" in NFL (American Football) speak. 

As most AFL experts would say in building a team, the first thing you need to do is "build a spine" - key positions on the team. With the recruitment of Franklin and Roughhead from the 2004 draft gave Clarkson  a potent forward line where he could base his strategies to take advantage of this structure. Using his potent forward line, strategies such as "Buddy's Box" (four man forward line) and "Clarkson Cluster" were designed to keep the ball as often as possible in the forward half where his star forwards and forwards/mids (Williams, Crawford, Sewell, Mitchell, Lewis, Rioli, Bruest Puopolo, Gunston) could take advantage and keep the ball there as long as possible. Statistically speaking the longer you keep the ball in your half the better chance you will have of winning. 

This is very different to coaches such as Paul Roos and Ross Lyon who are focused on more a defensive structure. Other coaches have tried to replicate Clarkson's strategies but the issue is depending on your personnel (players) that may not necessarily be the best strategy.

The other thing that Clarko had and still has is great lieutenants. With the likes of Damien Hardwick, Luke Beverage, Adam Simpson and Brendan Bolton to support him, all of who have become senior AFL coaches, in their own right. Clarko's biggest coup though from a coaching support perspective has to be recruiting Brett Ratten as an assistant coach. It is no surprise that Hawthorn's threepeat has only come after Brett Ratten joined the Hawks in late 2012 after losing the premiership to Sydney. In my opinion Brett Ratten is the best senior coach in the AFL that is not a senior coach. I was so shocked at the time that Carlton sacked Brett Ratten and replaced him with Mick Malthouse. As I have said in previous posts the issue for Carlton was not the coach but overall leadership, governance and culture. Carlton would not be where they are at now if they had kept Brett Ratten. Mick Malthouse probably cost the club at least $3-5 million dollars more since and has left the club in a worst state. On the other hand Ratts has assisted Clarko in three straight premierships.

Now you have Brendan Bolton coaching the Blues and although he will do an admirable job, Ratts would have been the best coach for the blues. Unless he did not put his hand up, given the tragedy of his son,  I am surprised he wasn't looked at by Carlton, Essendon and Adelaide. For Carlton it may have been a pride factor to bring back Ratts after sacking him. 

The administration and the board are key components and Hawthorn has a very stable board and an excellent leadership CEO in Stuart Fox. One critical part of Stuart Fox's successful approach is communications. He instils that the whole organisation needs "sing from the same hymn sheet" and he is very comfortable with driving leadership down as far as possible. Stuart also has great support from his second level of leadership.

On the field Hawthorn oozes leadership too. Captain, Luke Hodge epitomises great leadership. All you have to do is look at the documentary "Life of an AFL Captain - the chosen few" and the references to Luke Hodge shows not only what a great leader he is, but how he is perceived by other captains. Known as the "General" by Bruce McAvaney and as Leigh Matthews said "When the Hawks devoted the first choice in the 2001 NAB AFL National Draft to Luke Hodge they got not just a great player but a great leader, too". So there is no questioning his great leadership.  What people forget though is the leadership supporting Hodge. Sam Mitchell was captain prior to Luke Hodge and is a critical part of the leadership team. Luke may be the general, but Mitchell is typically the strategist in the middle and Luke has learnt from Sam Mitchell and Shane Crawford before him. There are also other great leaders in Jarryd Roughead, Jordan Lewis, Shaun Burgoyne, Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, and Liam Shields. Given the great leadership, the team effectively can run itself.

Hawthorn have been fortunate to have the assistance of Ray McLean's "Leading Teams" organisation to help them through the journey of leadership and culture since 2005. As Ray McLean said after Hawthorn's 2015 premiership, “A strongly aligned culture and leadership is still the most reliable recipe for success.” I believe Ray and his team have had great influence over Hawthorn's success. 

I think Hawthorn will continue its success and win the 2016 Premiership. With Ryan Shoenmakers stepping up during the 2016 finals, this makes them an even more formidable up forward. Shoey looks much more comfortable on the forward line and will add another bow to the structure. The key for recruitment is a key position in the backline with the retirement of Brian Lake and Gibson aging. Jake Carlisle would be the perfect fit and could also be a swingman in the forward line.

Hawthorn also need to give players such as Anderson, Litherland, Langford, Woodward, O'Rourke, Hartung more of a run to give the older legs (Gibson, Burgoyne, Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis a break. Otherwise they will leave where they can get into top 22 at other clubs. Success at Box Hill Hawks has played a major part in the ongoing success of Hawthorn.

The biggest issue for Hawthorn is not the next 2 years (2016 and 2017) where you would expect them to have relative success. It will be when their stars such as Mitchell and Hodge retire and the other players continue to age. This transition from the old to new will be critical in their on-going success. Hawthorn's biggest loss will be Sam Mitchell who I believe is the most important player in this Hawthorn team. 

   

AFL Finals Week 2

Results from Week 1

It was the week "the west was won", with both West Coast and Fremantle moving directly to the Preliminary finals to be played in Perth. West Coast have certainly firmed to now be the new Premiership favourites, and rightly so after defeating a very tired looking Hawthorn. Right from the opening siren the Eagles dominated. As discussed in my previous blog "Who should Hawthorn choose to play in Perth? Fremantle or West Coast?", I think Hawthorn made a strategically poor decision by not resting their players in the final week and finishing fourth, thereby playing Fremantle instead of West Coast. I think the Hawks would have had a much better chance against Fremantle whilst resting key players. I was also surprised by two other selection decisions. Why Jonathan Ceglar did not play and why they did not rest Isaac Smith. Not that either decision would have made a huge difference.

I believe. resting the Fremantle players made a difference to the win. Sydney competed admirably given the depleted side without Jack, Parker and of course Buddy. This game proved two things to me. That neither of these two teams will win and likely not even make the Grand Final. The forward line of each team did not look like they could kick a winning score. Sydney needed Buddy and Fremantle needed to rely on the likes of their small forwards - Ballantyne and Walters.

In the Elimination finals both Adedaide and North Melbourne were successful although not convincingly. The Bulldogs kept Adelaide in the game by their inaccuracy. In the end it was their leadership led by "Tex" (Taylor) Walker and Dangerfield's experience and composure that won the game. Not to mention the brilliance of man of the match, Eddy Betts who kept them in the game all day. It seemed that Eddy was given FAR too much room to move in the forward line.

Similarly in North Melbourne's win it was the more experience players like "Boomer", Waite and Swallow with assistance from Cunnington and Jacobs that got them over the line. Jacobs did a wonderful job curbing Trent Cotchin's influence throughout the game. I thought Richmond would get the job done but North Melbourne did their homework better and rested the players which i believe made a difference.

1st Semi Final

Hawthorn should go into the first Semi Final as favourites. The key to winning this match for Hawthorn is to curb Patrick Dangerfield and Eddy Betts.  Liam Shields or Will Langford will get the job of "Danger" and Taylor Duryea or Ben Stratton will get Eddy Betts. The question for Hawthorn is who will they bring in to replace Jack Gunston? James Scicily or they will go to swingmen, Ryan Shoenmakes or Matt Spangher. I think Hawthoun should win this match comfortably by 20 points given they rarely lose two games in a row and they are after all the most experienced finals team.

2nd Semi Final

After beating Richmond in the elimination final, the Kangaroos should win this games from a depleted  Swans outfit. This will be a very different result to last year's preliminary final where North Melbourne defeated Swans. After last years loss, North Melbourne should be hungry to win against the team that knocked them out in last year's preliminary final. North Melbourne by 25 points. The only way Sydney can defeat North Melbourne is with Buddy firing to go. If Buddy is back I think the Swans can get up in a thriller....by 1 point.

 

   

AFL Finals Week 1

Predictions

Four games to go to the first week of finals and my predictions for the Qualifying and Elimination finalists were almost spot on. My only blemish was I thought Geelong with seasoned players would get the eighth spot. However a draw to St Kilda and loss to Collingwood effectively killed Geelong's chances. Effectively they have only themselves to blame. 

Now the finals are as follows:

Since the final eight system has been in place, only teams in the top four have gone onto winning the Grand Final. However this year with the evenness of the top eight I believe any of the teams can win. The equation is very simple:

• For the elimination finalists - win four games in a row;
• For the Qualifying finalists - win two games in a row (if you win the QF) or three games in a row (if you lose the QF).

Qualifying final 2

This is the match that I am most excited about, not only because I am a Hawthorn supporter but because I believe it will be these two sides that will compete for the Grand Final. The only other team that I believe can threaten is Richmond. Being in Perth at Domain Stadium, gives West Coast the edge. The key to the game is the performance of Nic |Natanui and how well Hawthorn can dilute his influence. Hawthorn have struggled lately with leaping ruckman (e.g. Paddy Ryder) and you would think that Jonathan Ceglar with his 2.04m frame would be a key inclusion into the team. The question is who will be the second ruck - Hale or McEvoy? I would opt for "Big Boy" McEvoy as he will have the body strength to go with Natanui and Lycett. However Clarkson will likely opted for the more experienced Hale (who is likely in his final year at Hawthorn). Both teams have potent forward lines so this game will be won in the middle. Matt Priddis and Andrew Gaff are in terrific form and I believe one of these players (if not both) will need to be stopped. I would get Liam Shields or Will Langford to blanket Matt Priddis who is the contested ball king. Gaff is usually the recipient (via handball) of Priddis' hard ball gets. Hawthorn being the finals kings should win this match as they will have more composure on the big stage.

I think Hawthorn made a strategic mistake in the last round of the home and away season as they should have rested players and let Brisbane win the final round of the finals (therefore playing Fremantle instead of the in form West Coast). Now they face the likely contender for the Grand Final on their home ground. I think West Coast will win this match and confirm their favouritism for winning the Premiership. Hawthorn will need to regroup and to attempt a three-peat via the long road and the toughest road there. West Coast by 25 points.

Qualifying Final 1

With so many injuries to key players such as Buddy, Parker, Jack it is very difficult to see Sydney beat Fremantle at home. In addition the Fremantle players have been rested and should be fresh to win this match. To be honest I do not see either of these teams making the Grand Final, whether they win or lose this match. It is likely the Hawks will face Fremantle in the Preliminary final. It is difficult to see Sydney winning this or going further, I think they will be beaten by Richmond or North Melbourne in the Semi Finals after losing this one......unless of course Buddy comes back with a huge bang! Fremantle by 20 points

Elimination Final 1

Well done to the Bulldogs and the Crows to get to the finals in 2015. Given where the Western Bulldogs were at the end of last year to get to where they are now, is a huge turnaround for this team. For the Crows, after last year's disappointing season.  I expected them to get this far. That was though until the tragic passing of their coach Phil Walsh. The team could have gone two ways and I admire the Crows for coming together when everything seemed against them. I also think given the experience of the two teams (including finals) that Adelaide will win this game. You cannot beat experience against youth and enthusiasm when it comes to finals. Either way for these two teams in the eyes of their supporters this year has been a successful year. Adleaide by 18 points

Elimination Final 2

This is perhaps the most difficult game to predict of the four. Both Richmond and North Melbourne are form teams and I believe the winner of this game will play in the Preliminary final. They are both in better form than either Sydney or Fremantle. It will make the Preliminary Final a tough match when they face either team. They key to winning this game is holding down Cotchin and Deledio. If North Melbourne can do that they will win. If they cannot, then Richmond will fulfil their target of winning at least one final. I believe Richmond can do it, but this game can go either way and the result may well be less than one goal. Richmond by 3 points.

Who should Hawthorn choose to play in Perth? Fremantle or West Coast?

Week 1 - AFL Qualifying final

First week of the AFL finals and Hawthorn will likely be travelling to Domain Stadium to play either Fremantle Dockers or the West Coast Eagles. The choice of which team to play may strategically be in the hands of the Hawks. Assuming Hawthorn defeats the Brisbane Lions this week, they will be guaranteed a minimum top four position. Given Hawthorn's superior percentage to teams below them they have the option to potentially throw the game against Carlton which may likely decide who Hawthorn will be playing in the Qualifying final. At minimum it gives the Hawks the opportunity to rest players and send them to Perth a week earlier to acclimatise to the conditions. This might be useful for the older players at Hawthorn including Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Brian Lake, Sean Burgoyne and Luke Hodge (who through suspension has a forced break). It may be useful to give the guys playing well in the VFL a feel for AFL level football.

West Coast or Fremantle

If I was Hawthorn I would likely choose to play against Fremantle than West Coast Eagles in Perth. Fremantle look far more vulnerable in the forward line than West Coast who have almost an "All - Australian" forward line with likes of Kennedy, Hill, Cripps. Darling, LeCras and Gaff leading the way. With West Coast having the second best percentage in the competition (behind only Hawthorn), shows how potent their forward line is. The other big advantage for West Coast (and where Hawthorn is most vulnerable) is in the Ruck. Hawthorn struggled with Paddy Ryder's leap against Port Adelaide recently and this will be even more the case with Nic Natanui. In Hawthorn's recent win against West Coast, Nic was notably absent. Sandilands is a man mountain but not as dominant as Nic can be. Hawthorn will likely face West Coast at some stage during their campaign, however for Hawthorn I would prefer that to be on my home turf and under pressure conditions that the Hawks have managed to perfect over the past few premierships. After beating Western Bulldogs, West Coast are now the form side of the competition. On the flip side Fremantle have shown they are vulnerable to looses to Hawthorn and more recently North Melbourne. Playing Fremantle is even more a strategic than resting players as you will still get the week's rest after winning a Qualifying Final.

Fremantle should definitely be the target for Week 1 Qualifying Finals

With the recent Nat Fyfe injury this is even more the case for Hawthorn to position itself to play Fremantle. It will be interesting to watch how the results pan out in round 23, but for Hawthorn Fremantle should definitely be the target team to play in Week 1 of the finals. Even if Nat Fyfe is fit to play (which may be doubtful) he will be lacking some match fitness. Also with Pavlich on the sidelines I cannot see why Hawthorn would want to play the more in form West Coast? 

Hawthorn's strategy will be on the basis of whether West Coast beat Adelaide. If WCE beat Adelaide. they are a chance of getting the top spot if Fremantle lose to Port Adelaide in the following round. If this scenario happens then Hawthorn should win both games. If West Coast lose against Adelaide, then Hawthorn should "lose" the Carlton game.  Assuming of course that Sydney win all their matches.   

2015 AFL Finals Fixture - Week 1 Prediction

2015 AFL Finals Fixture - Week 1 (Prediction)

Even though there are four more rounds in the AFL, the finals fixture is starting to form for week 1 of the finals. If you divide the finalist into two parts: top 4 (1-4) and bottom 4 (4-8) only one critical question remains for each part:

• Top 4: Does Sydney or Western Bulldogs make the top 4?
• Bottom 4: Which of North Melbourne, Adelaide or Geelong will not make the top 8?

Based on form and current position on the ladder, I believe the week one final's fixture has already been decided based on the remaining four rounds.

Assuming there are no major upsets (big assumption given the current season), there are three key matches that will be critical deciders of this final fixture:

1. West Coast versus Western Bulldogs (Round 21)
2. Western Bulldogs versus Nort Melbourne (Round 22)
3. Richmond versus North Melbourne (Round 23 - final round) 
4. Geelong versus Adelaide (Round 23 - final round) 

1. Qualifying Final 1

Likely: Fremantle versus Sydney

Possible: Fremantle versus Western Bulldogs

Fremantle are a certainty to finish on top of the ladder given they are now 2.5 games clear. Even if West Coast beats Fremantle this week I believe they have done enough to cement themselves as minor premiers. Sydney should remain in the top 4 with a relatively easy run home compared with the Western Bulldogs:

Sydney: Collingwood, GWS, St Kilda, Gold Coast

WB: Melbourne, West Coast, North Melbourne, Brisbane

Western Bulldogs and West Coast Eagles are by far the big improvers for 2016 with perhaps Luke Beverage taking honours as coach of the year. No wonder the Hawks are where they are based on the pedigree of the coaching staff over the past few years: Clarkson, Beverage, Simpson, Ratten, Bolton.....all who could be premiership coaches in their own right. Although I do not think they will play off in the Grand Final, the "Doggies" have certainly marked their patch for years to come and potentially 2017. With future stars such as Boyd and Bontenpelli gaining experience, and the return of "Libba" to the mix of existing stars....wow! They are looking red hot....but I remember people saying the same about Port Adelaide.

You would expect Sydney to win all their matches playing teams only on the bottom half of the ladder. This will also be an opportunity to increase their percentage. Western Bulldogs have two matches that can potentially go either way with West Coast and North Melbourne. If they win both these matches then they are a hot chance to make the top 4. Even though the Sydney Swans seem out of form they have the next few weeks to re-group and re-establish themselves as a premiership contender. Buddy Franklin will need to play a huge role in their finals campaign for Sydney Swans to be close to a contender. Although they are likely to make top four, they certainly do not look as formidable as they did in 2014.

1. Qualifying Final 2

Likely: Hawthorn versus West Coast Eagles

The recent match between Hawthorn and West Coast is potentially a preview to the second qualifying final between the master (Alistair Clarkson) and the apprentice (Adam Simpson) . Natanui will be a huge inclusion with his dominant ruck work and will potentially edge the favour back to West Coast. The question remains though where will the game be played (Domain Stadium or MCG). Given Hawthorn has an easier run home you would expect a MCG final. Perhaps this weekend's round will be the decider,  where each team are up against their arch rivals: Hawthorn playing Geelong and West Coast to play Fremantle. I am going to predict a MCG final. Given the finish for the Hawks it is very very difficult to look past them as the outright favourites to win the premiership ("three-peat") and write themselves into the history books as the greatest modern day team of the last 50 years (surpassing the Brisbane Lions). Alistair Clarkson will certainly have them well primed for the finals campaign and a leadership team comprising of multiple triple premiership players will be difficult to knock out the modern day kings from their throne.  Ross Lyon could play a bold strategic move and let the West Coast Eagle's win the "Derby" and making it difficult for Hawthorn during the finals campaign by travelling to Perth. This may well be a tactic to try and stop the Hawks "three-peat" campaign.

Hawthorn: Geelong. Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton

West Coast: Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, St Kilda

West Coast is no certainty to finish in the top 4 given the tough run home, however you would expect them to win at least 2 of the last four rounds given all remaining games except Adelaide are at their home ground at Domain Stadium. If they do lose against Fremantle the match against the Western Bulldogs is a MUST-WIN for top 4 and the double chance (for both teams). Being in Perth I am expecting a WCE win.

Elimination Finals

The teams that compete in the elimination finals will likely be decided by two games in the last round of the 2016 AFL Season (round 23):

• Richmond versus North Melbourne 
• Geelong versus Adelaide

Only three of these four teams will make it and they are only separated by 2 points on the ladder. None are safe and all have had significant performance lapses this season. You could argue that this bunch have been the most inconsistent teams of 2016, all with roller-coaster performances. They have all lost games they were expected to win and conversely have won games they expected to lose. If any of these teams have a performance lapse between now and the end of the year, they are effectively out of finals contention.

Richmond: Gold Coast, Collingwood, Essendon, North Melbourne

Geelong: Hawthorn, St Kilda, Collingwood, Adelaide

Adelaide: Essendon, Brisbane, West Coast, Geelong

North Melbourne: St Kilda, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Richmond

Apart from the loss to Adelaide recently, Richmond have been the form side of the competition alongside Hawthorn. They have a relatively good run home, with only the last game against North Melbourne with a top 8 contender. Therefore you would expect Richmond to play in the second elimination final.

On the flip side, North Melbourne have arguably the toughest run home. Playing two teams currently in the top 4 and Richmond who only a week ago was knocking on the door of the top 4. Therefore unless they can beat one of these teams in the last three rounds. I expect them to miss out on a top 8 spot. North Melbourne will certainly not accept that and are more than capable or beating teams above them. If they win two of the next four they are likely to play finals, otherwise (as I predict), they will miss out.

It is ironic that Geelong and Adelaide will be fighting for a spot in the final eight (and potentially the last spot - depending on North Melbourne), given they were each provided two points for the game that was cancelled due to the tragic passing of Philip Walsh. The last spot may potentially to be decided on the last round when they play each other in Round 23. Effectively for these two teams, and especially Adelaide, Round 23 may be another elimination final and it will need to be treated as a final. The team that wins this may be the team that proceeds to either one of the elimination finals. Given it is at the Geelong fortress at Simmonds Stadium and Geelong's finals experience, you would say that Geelong will get the nod. However, as a fairytale ending to tragic circumstances, I (and I am sure every other non-Geelong or non-North Melbourne supporter) would love for the Crows to rise to the occasion for their former coach! Fittingly both these clubs are also fighting for the signature of "Danger" and a win may well be the incentive for him to stay at Adelaide. Which I think would be a great outcome for the Crows. There is a likely outcome that both Geelong and Adelaide get through, however this is in the hands of North Melbourne and would entail them losing all three last games (which is a likely given tough opposition).      

Therefore my prediction for Elimination finals are

EF1: Western Bulldogs versus Adelaide

EF2: Richmond versus Geelong

My prediction for the final series are as follows:

Given the surprise draw between Geelong and St. Kilda and North Melbourne triumphant over Fremantle, I now expect North Melbourne to retain that vital eighth position.