Who should Hawthorn choose to play in Perth? Fremantle or West Coast?

Week 1 - AFL Qualifying final

First week of the AFL finals and Hawthorn will likely be travelling to Domain Stadium to play either Fremantle Dockers or the West Coast Eagles. The choice of which team to play may strategically be in the hands of the Hawks. Assuming Hawthorn defeats the Brisbane Lions this week, they will be guaranteed a minimum top four position. Given Hawthorn's superior percentage to teams below them they have the option to potentially throw the game against Carlton which may likely decide who Hawthorn will be playing in the Qualifying final. At minimum it gives the Hawks the opportunity to rest players and send them to Perth a week earlier to acclimatise to the conditions. This might be useful for the older players at Hawthorn including Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Brian Lake, Sean Burgoyne and Luke Hodge (who through suspension has a forced break). It may be useful to give the guys playing well in the VFL a feel for AFL level football.

West Coast or Fremantle

If I was Hawthorn I would likely choose to play against Fremantle than West Coast Eagles in Perth. Fremantle look far more vulnerable in the forward line than West Coast who have almost an "All - Australian" forward line with likes of Kennedy, Hill, Cripps. Darling, LeCras and Gaff leading the way. With West Coast having the second best percentage in the competition (behind only Hawthorn), shows how potent their forward line is. The other big advantage for West Coast (and where Hawthorn is most vulnerable) is in the Ruck. Hawthorn struggled with Paddy Ryder's leap against Port Adelaide recently and this will be even more the case with Nic Natanui. In Hawthorn's recent win against West Coast, Nic was notably absent. Sandilands is a man mountain but not as dominant as Nic can be. Hawthorn will likely face West Coast at some stage during their campaign, however for Hawthorn I would prefer that to be on my home turf and under pressure conditions that the Hawks have managed to perfect over the past few premierships. After beating Western Bulldogs, West Coast are now the form side of the competition. On the flip side Fremantle have shown they are vulnerable to looses to Hawthorn and more recently North Melbourne. Playing Fremantle is even more a strategic than resting players as you will still get the week's rest after winning a Qualifying Final.

Fremantle should definitely be the target for Week 1 Qualifying Finals

With the recent Nat Fyfe injury this is even more the case for Hawthorn to position itself to play Fremantle. It will be interesting to watch how the results pan out in round 23, but for Hawthorn Fremantle should definitely be the target team to play in Week 1 of the finals. Even if Nat Fyfe is fit to play (which may be doubtful) he will be lacking some match fitness. Also with Pavlich on the sidelines I cannot see why Hawthorn would want to play the more in form West Coast? 

Hawthorn's strategy will be on the basis of whether West Coast beat Adelaide. If WCE beat Adelaide. they are a chance of getting the top spot if Fremantle lose to Port Adelaide in the following round. If this scenario happens then Hawthorn should win both games. If West Coast lose against Adelaide, then Hawthorn should "lose" the Carlton game.  Assuming of course that Sydney win all their matches.