Who should Hawthorn choose to play in Perth? Fremantle or West Coast?

Week 1 - AFL Qualifying final

First week of the AFL finals and Hawthorn will likely be travelling to Domain Stadium to play either Fremantle Dockers or the West Coast Eagles. The choice of which team to play may strategically be in the hands of the Hawks. Assuming Hawthorn defeats the Brisbane Lions this week, they will be guaranteed a minimum top four position. Given Hawthorn's superior percentage to teams below them they have the option to potentially throw the game against Carlton which may likely decide who Hawthorn will be playing in the Qualifying final. At minimum it gives the Hawks the opportunity to rest players and send them to Perth a week earlier to acclimatise to the conditions. This might be useful for the older players at Hawthorn including Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Brian Lake, Sean Burgoyne and Luke Hodge (who through suspension has a forced break). It may be useful to give the guys playing well in the VFL a feel for AFL level football.

West Coast or Fremantle

If I was Hawthorn I would likely choose to play against Fremantle than West Coast Eagles in Perth. Fremantle look far more vulnerable in the forward line than West Coast who have almost an "All - Australian" forward line with likes of Kennedy, Hill, Cripps. Darling, LeCras and Gaff leading the way. With West Coast having the second best percentage in the competition (behind only Hawthorn), shows how potent their forward line is. The other big advantage for West Coast (and where Hawthorn is most vulnerable) is in the Ruck. Hawthorn struggled with Paddy Ryder's leap against Port Adelaide recently and this will be even more the case with Nic Natanui. In Hawthorn's recent win against West Coast, Nic was notably absent. Sandilands is a man mountain but not as dominant as Nic can be. Hawthorn will likely face West Coast at some stage during their campaign, however for Hawthorn I would prefer that to be on my home turf and under pressure conditions that the Hawks have managed to perfect over the past few premierships. After beating Western Bulldogs, West Coast are now the form side of the competition. On the flip side Fremantle have shown they are vulnerable to looses to Hawthorn and more recently North Melbourne. Playing Fremantle is even more a strategic than resting players as you will still get the week's rest after winning a Qualifying Final.

Fremantle should definitely be the target for Week 1 Qualifying Finals

With the recent Nat Fyfe injury this is even more the case for Hawthorn to position itself to play Fremantle. It will be interesting to watch how the results pan out in round 23, but for Hawthorn Fremantle should definitely be the target team to play in Week 1 of the finals. Even if Nat Fyfe is fit to play (which may be doubtful) he will be lacking some match fitness. Also with Pavlich on the sidelines I cannot see why Hawthorn would want to play the more in form West Coast? 

Hawthorn's strategy will be on the basis of whether West Coast beat Adelaide. If WCE beat Adelaide. they are a chance of getting the top spot if Fremantle lose to Port Adelaide in the following round. If this scenario happens then Hawthorn should win both games. If West Coast lose against Adelaide, then Hawthorn should "lose" the Carlton game.  Assuming of course that Sydney win all their matches.   

2015 AFL Finals Fixture - Week 1 Prediction

2015 AFL Finals Fixture - Week 1 (Prediction)

Even though there are four more rounds in the AFL, the finals fixture is starting to form for week 1 of the finals. If you divide the finalist into two parts: top 4 (1-4) and bottom 4 (4-8) only one critical question remains for each part:

• Top 4: Does Sydney or Western Bulldogs make the top 4?
• Bottom 4: Which of North Melbourne, Adelaide or Geelong will not make the top 8?

Based on form and current position on the ladder, I believe the week one final's fixture has already been decided based on the remaining four rounds.

Assuming there are no major upsets (big assumption given the current season), there are three key matches that will be critical deciders of this final fixture:

1. West Coast versus Western Bulldogs (Round 21)
2. Western Bulldogs versus Nort Melbourne (Round 22)
3. Richmond versus North Melbourne (Round 23 - final round) 
4. Geelong versus Adelaide (Round 23 - final round) 

1. Qualifying Final 1

Likely: Fremantle versus Sydney

Possible: Fremantle versus Western Bulldogs

Fremantle are a certainty to finish on top of the ladder given they are now 2.5 games clear. Even if West Coast beats Fremantle this week I believe they have done enough to cement themselves as minor premiers. Sydney should remain in the top 4 with a relatively easy run home compared with the Western Bulldogs:

Sydney: Collingwood, GWS, St Kilda, Gold Coast

WB: Melbourne, West Coast, North Melbourne, Brisbane

Western Bulldogs and West Coast Eagles are by far the big improvers for 2016 with perhaps Luke Beverage taking honours as coach of the year. No wonder the Hawks are where they are based on the pedigree of the coaching staff over the past few years: Clarkson, Beverage, Simpson, Ratten, Bolton.....all who could be premiership coaches in their own right. Although I do not think they will play off in the Grand Final, the "Doggies" have certainly marked their patch for years to come and potentially 2017. With future stars such as Boyd and Bontenpelli gaining experience, and the return of "Libba" to the mix of existing stars....wow! They are looking red hot....but I remember people saying the same about Port Adelaide.

You would expect Sydney to win all their matches playing teams only on the bottom half of the ladder. This will also be an opportunity to increase their percentage. Western Bulldogs have two matches that can potentially go either way with West Coast and North Melbourne. If they win both these matches then they are a hot chance to make the top 4. Even though the Sydney Swans seem out of form they have the next few weeks to re-group and re-establish themselves as a premiership contender. Buddy Franklin will need to play a huge role in their finals campaign for Sydney Swans to be close to a contender. Although they are likely to make top four, they certainly do not look as formidable as they did in 2014.

1. Qualifying Final 2

Likely: Hawthorn versus West Coast Eagles

The recent match between Hawthorn and West Coast is potentially a preview to the second qualifying final between the master (Alistair Clarkson) and the apprentice (Adam Simpson) . Natanui will be a huge inclusion with his dominant ruck work and will potentially edge the favour back to West Coast. The question remains though where will the game be played (Domain Stadium or MCG). Given Hawthorn has an easier run home you would expect a MCG final. Perhaps this weekend's round will be the decider,  where each team are up against their arch rivals: Hawthorn playing Geelong and West Coast to play Fremantle. I am going to predict a MCG final. Given the finish for the Hawks it is very very difficult to look past them as the outright favourites to win the premiership ("three-peat") and write themselves into the history books as the greatest modern day team of the last 50 years (surpassing the Brisbane Lions). Alistair Clarkson will certainly have them well primed for the finals campaign and a leadership team comprising of multiple triple premiership players will be difficult to knock out the modern day kings from their throne.  Ross Lyon could play a bold strategic move and let the West Coast Eagle's win the "Derby" and making it difficult for Hawthorn during the finals campaign by travelling to Perth. This may well be a tactic to try and stop the Hawks "three-peat" campaign.

Hawthorn: Geelong. Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton

West Coast: Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, St Kilda

West Coast is no certainty to finish in the top 4 given the tough run home, however you would expect them to win at least 2 of the last four rounds given all remaining games except Adelaide are at their home ground at Domain Stadium. If they do lose against Fremantle the match against the Western Bulldogs is a MUST-WIN for top 4 and the double chance (for both teams). Being in Perth I am expecting a WCE win.

Elimination Finals

The teams that compete in the elimination finals will likely be decided by two games in the last round of the 2016 AFL Season (round 23):

• Richmond versus North Melbourne 
• Geelong versus Adelaide

Only three of these four teams will make it and they are only separated by 2 points on the ladder. None are safe and all have had significant performance lapses this season. You could argue that this bunch have been the most inconsistent teams of 2016, all with roller-coaster performances. They have all lost games they were expected to win and conversely have won games they expected to lose. If any of these teams have a performance lapse between now and the end of the year, they are effectively out of finals contention.

Richmond: Gold Coast, Collingwood, Essendon, North Melbourne

Geelong: Hawthorn, St Kilda, Collingwood, Adelaide

Adelaide: Essendon, Brisbane, West Coast, Geelong

North Melbourne: St Kilda, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Richmond

Apart from the loss to Adelaide recently, Richmond have been the form side of the competition alongside Hawthorn. They have a relatively good run home, with only the last game against North Melbourne with a top 8 contender. Therefore you would expect Richmond to play in the second elimination final.

On the flip side, North Melbourne have arguably the toughest run home. Playing two teams currently in the top 4 and Richmond who only a week ago was knocking on the door of the top 4. Therefore unless they can beat one of these teams in the last three rounds. I expect them to miss out on a top 8 spot. North Melbourne will certainly not accept that and are more than capable or beating teams above them. If they win two of the next four they are likely to play finals, otherwise (as I predict), they will miss out.

It is ironic that Geelong and Adelaide will be fighting for a spot in the final eight (and potentially the last spot - depending on North Melbourne), given they were each provided two points for the game that was cancelled due to the tragic passing of Philip Walsh. The last spot may potentially to be decided on the last round when they play each other in Round 23. Effectively for these two teams, and especially Adelaide, Round 23 may be another elimination final and it will need to be treated as a final. The team that wins this may be the team that proceeds to either one of the elimination finals. Given it is at the Geelong fortress at Simmonds Stadium and Geelong's finals experience, you would say that Geelong will get the nod. However, as a fairytale ending to tragic circumstances, I (and I am sure every other non-Geelong or non-North Melbourne supporter) would love for the Crows to rise to the occasion for their former coach! Fittingly both these clubs are also fighting for the signature of "Danger" and a win may well be the incentive for him to stay at Adelaide. Which I think would be a great outcome for the Crows. There is a likely outcome that both Geelong and Adelaide get through, however this is in the hands of North Melbourne and would entail them losing all three last games (which is a likely given tough opposition).      

Therefore my prediction for Elimination finals are

EF1: Western Bulldogs versus Adelaide

EF2: Richmond versus Geelong

My prediction for the final series are as follows:

Given the surprise draw between Geelong and St. Kilda and North Melbourne triumphant over Fremantle, I now expect North Melbourne to retain that vital eighth position.